Michigan Democrats gather during a campaign rally at Cass Technical High School Saturday, October 24. (Paul Sancya, AP Photo)
The balance of power in Congress is up for grabs on Tuesday. If Democrats end up taking the Senate, rural voters—through a combination of staying home and switching sides—will have played a major role. Republicans are at risk of losing Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and even Florida and Mississippi. The race for the House, too, will likely come down to 21 tossup districts.
Throughout the midterms, Drop Site and Barn Raiser have been partnering for rural coverage, and below is a cheat sheet election guide to keep with you as you watch returns on Tuesday. (Breaking Points and Drop Site will be going live together starting at 6 pm ET Tuesday, so tune in there.)
Michigan Democrats gather during a campaign rally at Cass Technical High School Saturday, October 24. (Paul Sancya, AP Photo)
This week, Drop Site’s Ryan Grim and Julian Andreone sat down with Barn Raiser’s Suzan Erem for a conversation on some of those rural races, which you can watch here:
Independent Dan Osborn has emerged in Nebraska as part of a broader wave of independent Senate candidates challenging Republicans in traditionally conservative states. Osborn stands out for having maintained or narrowly led Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts in recent polls.
In late January, a Tyson plant in Lexington closed down and more than 3,200 Nebraskans lost their jobs in a town with a population of roughly 11,000. Less than two weeks later, when asked about what to do about the lost jobs, Ricketts stated, “this is one of those things where we have a private sector,” and said Tyson had not violated anti-trust law.
Osborn, a union member who led a 2021 Kellogg’s strike in Omaha, has centered his campaign on working-class economic concerns, corporate influence and political independence, in contrast to Ricketts, a wealthy businessman and former Nebraska governor. Osborn has emphasized populist measures such as enforcing the Packers and Stockyards Act to break up the corporate concentration of the food system.
Rising fertilizer and fuel costs, tariffs and foreign beef imports are hitting Nebraska farmers and ranchers hard. Both candidates have addressed affordability but differ over federal policy and trade restrictions. Ricketts has defended Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs as ways to support families and protect American agriculture, while Osborn has criticized the cuts for disproportionately benefiting wealthy Americans and argued that broad tariffs raise costs for consumers and farmers.
Candidates: Adam Hamilton (D) v. Roger Marshall (R)
Incumbent: Marshall (R)
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, looks to unseat Roger Marshall, an obstetrician-gynecologist and longtime Trump ally.
In September, the New York Times reported that Marshall and his OBGYN practice had sued more than 700 patients, mostly in rural Barton County, over their inability to pay for care. The investigation found Marshall routinely charged patients, many who were uninsured, an 18% annual interest rate on unpaid bills.
Hamilton criticized tariffs for disrupting agricultural markets and increasing costs for Kansas farmers, while Marshall defended his record on agriculture and emphasized protecting the state’s cattle industry. Hamilton supports reversing federal Medicaid cuts and restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies, arguing that reduced funding threatens rural hospitals. Marshall has defended the nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts he voted to pass in the One Big Beautiful Bill in 2025.
Water rights have also drawn attention following an Associated Press investigation into Marshall’s support for a $4.2 million federal project intended to increase water supplies at Quivira National Wildlife Refuge. The project could also benefit a neighboring ranch in which Marshall holds an ownership stake, according to the investigation. Marshall’s office denied that the ranch would benefit.
Incumbent: Gary Peters (D) (not seeking re-election)
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
The contest to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan is a nationally consequential toss-up race as Democrats must defend the Michigan seat while gaining four Republican held seats to regain control of the Senate.
El-Sayed, a former Detroit health care director, has campaigned on Medicare for All, higher taxes on billionaires and reducing corporate influence on politics. As a public health director, he started a medical debt payoff program that has cleared more than $95 million in bills for more than 100,000 Wayne County residents since 2024.
El-Sayed has faced repeated Islamophobic and racist attacks from Rogers, the Republican Party and President Donald Trump. If he wins, El-Sayed could become the first Muslim senator in U.S. history.
Rogers, a military veteran and FBI agent, served 14 years in the House from 2001-2015. During that time, he became known for his support of the PATRIOT Act and for years pushed to expand opioid access that helped fuel the opioid epidemic. He most recently lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate race.
El-Sayed has called for the public ownership of AI companies and supports regulating AI firms like public utilities. Rogers has called for a one-year moratorium on new data center projects.
Five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson in a race shaped by concerns over rural health care, rising living costs and Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Maine’s largest trading partner.
An October poll found Jackson narrowly ahead of Collins 50% to 46%, within the margin of error.
Jackson has criticized Collins’s procedural vote advancing Trump’s 2025 tax and spending legislation, although she ultimately opposed the bill over its Medicaid cuts. The candidates have also clashed over tariffs on Canada and their effects on the state’s agricultural, forestry and fishing industries.
The race took an unusual turn in July when Jackson replaced Democratic primary winner Graham Platner, who withdrew in July following allegations of sexual assault.
Angie Nixon, a state senator, seeks to upset Sen. Ashley Moody, the former state Attorney General who Governor Ron DeSantis appointed to fill a vacancy left by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in 2025.
Candidates: Peggy Flanagan (D) v. Michelle Tafoya (R) Incumbent: Tina Smith (D) (retiring) Cook Political Report: Lean D
Tina Smith’s 2025 announcement of her retirement left a rare open senate seat in Minnesota. Democrat Peggy Flanagan, current lieutenant governor of Minnesota and a member of the White Earth Nation, seeks to become the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. Senate. Republican Michelle Tafoya, a former reporter for the National Football League, hopes to flip a key GOP senate seat.
A New York Times/Siena University poll in October found Flanagan leading 54% to 40%.
Flanagan is endorsed by a number of progressive senators, including Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and has supported Sanders’s Joint Resolution of Disapproval to block offensive arms sales to Israel.
Tafoya has defended the Trump administration’s tariff policies, arguing tariffs could produce more favorable trade agreements. Tafoya has also supported the administration’s latest $8 billion in temporary financial assistance for farmers affected by rising costs, funding that primarily benefits banks and the largest farm operators. Flanagan has blasted Trump’s tariffs, saying they are increasing expenses for farmers during the fall harvest.
Both candidates support year-round sales of E15 gasoline, which would expand demand for corn-based ethanol. More than 40% of U.S. corn already goes to ethanol, which has accelerated the loss of family farms and the corporate consolidation of the food system, while the fertilizer used to grow corn for ethanol is warming the planet and causes significant water pollution in rural America.
Iowa
Candidates: Ashley Hinson (R) v. Josh Turek (D)
Incumbent: Joni Ernst (R) (not seeking re-election)
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Joshua Turek are in a heated race for an Iowa upper chamber seat that hasn’t been held by a Democrat since 2008.
RealClearPolitics polling average shows Hinson and Turek virtually tied, with Hinson at a slight advantage of 46% to 45.5%.
Hinson has championed her support for the Save Our Bacon Act, which would undermine markets for independent meat producers and prevent states from imposing animal confinement standards on livestock products. Turek has been opposed to the act, arguing that focus should be on passing an Iowa Farm Bill.
Both candidates have criticized the war in Iran and emphasize the detrimental impact it’s had on diesel prices for Iowa farmers. Hinson, who is endorsed by Trump, has broken away from him on some policy priorities, including a call for the end of the war in Iran. However, Turek has criticized her for repeated House votes against a war powers resolution.
Hinson and Turek have also criticized each other for their attendance records in federal and state legislatures, respectively. Since being elected in 2021, Hinson has missed 163 committee votes and 33 floor votes, while Turek was absent or didn’t vote on 58.1% of floor votes in the Iowa House of Representatives this year.
Candidates: Dan S. Sullivan (R) v. Mary Peltola (D)
Incumbent: Sullivan (R)
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Fish are central to Alaska’s economy, identity, Indigenous cultures and, in 2026, its Senate race. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman and the first Alaska native woman elected to Congress, both have a history with the fishing industry and have championed their work to drive campaign support.
In the state, declining salmon runs threaten commercial fisheries and subsistence traditions in rural and Alaska Native communities. Peltola supports banning factory trawling and reducing bycatch, while Sullivan has advanced legislation aimed at reducing unintended fish catches through improved technology, monitoring and accountability.
The candidates have also clashed over Trump’s trade policies, which have placed additional pressure on Alaska’s seafood industry and its dependence on international markets. Peltola argues that the tariffs have increased costs for fishermen and processors, while Sullivan has largely defended the administration’s trade policies, voting against efforts to overturn tariffs on Canada and other trading partners.
Both candidates support oil and gas development, although they differ over federal energy policy and the role of government in addressing rising costs. Peltola has emphasized household affordability and protecting federal services, while Sullivan points to his record of securing infrastructure, energy and health care investments for Alaska.
In October, the Peltola campaign faced accusations that it secretly supported a scheme that led to two men named Dan Sullivan running in the Alaska Senate race. (Peltola has denied the accusations.) The Department of Justice subsequently opened a criminal investigation, and has pushed a lawsuit seeking to decertify the election results.
Candidates: David Valadao (R) v. Randy Villegas (D)
Incumbent: Valadao (R)
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
California Congressional District 22 drew national attention during the Democratic primaries when Randy Villegas defeated Jasmeet Bains, a California Assembly member backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and pro-Israel groups. On June 9, Axios reported that House Democrats threatened to withdraw their dues if the DCCC didn’t steer clear of such primaries.
Valadao, a dairy farmer, has emphasized agricultural support and water access, while Villegas has criticized his vote for Trump’s 2025 tax and spending law, which cut projected Medicaid spending. The district has one of California’s highest Medi-Cal enrollment rates, making potential coverage losses particularly consequential for rural communities.
ICE raids have further intensified the race, with Villegas criticizing federal immigration enforcement and its impact on farmworkers.
The contest is also notable for California’s redistricting in November 2025, which reduced the partisan lean and made the seat more competitive for Democrats.
Candidates: Brent Taylor (R) v. Justin J. Pearson (D)
Incumbent: Steve Cohen (D) (retiring)
Cook Political Report: Likely R
A sweeping, Republican-led redistricting effort that expanded Tennessee’s historically Black Democratic 9th Congressional District into a whiter, largely rural Republican-leaning seat, has set up a historic contest between Republican State Senator Brent Taylor and Democrat State Representative Justin Pearson.
The race exploded with scandal in late October when The Nashville Scene, an alternative weekly newspaper, reported that Taylor, who is married, had sent unsolicited nude photos to multiple people, one as recently as 2021.
The new District 9 voted for Donald Trump by more than 20 points in 2024. But a September poll by Hart Research, commissioned by TN Rise PAC and Three Star PAC (both groups that support Pearson), found Pearson trailing Taylor 44% to 48%.
Pearson, who gained national attention after being expelled from the Tennessee House in 2023 following a gun violence protest, has focused on issues that appeal to both urban and rural voters across the political spectrum: opposition to data centers, gun safety and the economy.
Taylor, who has received money from Musk’s SpaceXAI, has sponsored legislation that requires data center owners to pay the full cost of electricity upgrades rather than passing the cost onto residents, but critics say the legislation allows a loophole for facilities to use gas-powered turbines from outside the state.
Republican Aaron Flint, a former conservative radio host and Iraq War veteran, faces Democrat Sam Forstag, a former smokejumper and union leader for Montana’s 1st Congressional District, which spans the state boundary west of the Continental Divide.
Forstag advocates federal investment in affordable housing and restrictions on corporate homeownership, while Flint favors reducing regulations and increasing domestic production to lower costs.
Both candidates support restoring mandatory country of origin labeling, a key priority for independent ranchers.
Public lands and timber production have also shaped the contest. Forstag supports rebuilding federal land-management agencies and sustainable logging, while Flint emphasizes protecting public access and reducing regulations affecting timber communities.
Incumbent: Jared Golden (D) (not seeking re-election)
Cook Political Report: Lean R
Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage faces Democrat Matthew Dunlap in a contest to replace retiring Rep. Jared Golden, whom many considered uniquely suited to hold a largely rural district that backed Trump in 2024.
A September poll from the University of New Hampshire found Dunlap ahead of LePage 51% to 45%, with 5% of voters undecided.
Dunlap, Maine’s state auditor, has emphasized expanding health care access and criticized Lepage’s record on Medicaid. LePage has called for higher Medicaid reimbursement rates while opposing further expansion of MaineCare, the state’s Medicaid program. The candidates have also clashed over housing and energy costs.
The election is particularly significant in a district that Trump carried by 9 percentage points in 2024, despite repeatedly electing Golden, a moderate Democrat. Dunlap’s primary victory over a candidate backed by national Democratic leaders, Joe Baldacci, further distinguishes the race, which pits two longtime Maine political figures against each other.
North Carolina 9
Candidates: Richard Hudson (R) v. Richard Ojeda (D)
Incumbent: Hudson (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid R
Republican Rep. Richard Hudson faces Democrat Richard Ojeda in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, that’s been represented by a Republican since 1963.
The district’s inclusion of Fort Bragg and surrounding military communities makes veterans’ health care and military families particularly relevant to this contest, especially when considering Ojeda’s military background.
An October Democrat-sponsored poll shows Ojeda in striking distance, with Hudson at 46% and Ojeda at 42%.
Candidates: Clayton Fuller (R) v. Shawn Harris (D)
Incumbent: Fuller (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid R
Republican incumbent Clayton Fuller and Democratic candidate Shawn Harris are facing off for the second time in seven months in Georgia’s heavily Republican 14th Congressional District, where rural health care, agricultural policy and President Trump’s influence have shaped the race.
Fuller, a former district attorney endorsed by Trump, defeated Harris in an April special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from Congress in January. The district has never elected a Democrat to Congress. Fuller, who is white, defeated Harris, who is Black with 56% of the vote to Harris’s 44%. The difference was just over 15,000 votes, a gap Harris intends to close.
Since winning, Fuller has emphasized immigration, small-business development and infrastructure investment. He introduced a constitutional amendment seeking to restrict birthright citizenship, urged federal funding to address drinking water contamination in northwest Georgia and joined the EPA in announcing funding to clean up and redevelop contaminated properties.
Harris has emphasized protecting Medicaid, expanding rural health care access and supporting small and midsize farms. His proposals include improving rural water infrastructure, protecting farmland and strengthening regional food supply chains.
Republican Rep. Eli Crane faces Democrat Jonathan Nez, former president of the Navajo Nation, in a rematch for Arizona’s largely rural 2nd Congressional District. Crane defeated Nez by approximately 9 percentage points in 2024 but Nez is hoping “buyer’s remorse” will lead to victory this midterm.
A September poll found Nez leading 46% to 44%, with 10% of voters undecided.
If elected, Nez would become Arizona’s first Native American member of Congress.
Nez has criticized Crane’s support for the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill, as well as his votes concerning the war in Iran.
Water rights and infrastructure have also become significant issues in a district encompassing 14 tribal nations. Both candidates have addressed water security, while Nez has emphasized greater federal investment in rural and Indigenous communities.
Arizona 6
Candidates: JoAnna Mendoza (D) v. Juan Ciscomani (R)
Incumbent: Ciscomani (R)
Cook Political Report: Lean D
Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani faces Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza in a closely contested race in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, which spans Tucson’s suburbs and rural southeastern Arizona.
Local polling recently put Mendoza ahead of Ciscomani by 5 points. But, according to ABC 15 in Arizona, Ciscomani has overperformed polls in both of his previous elections by as much as 5 points.
Ciscomani, who immigrated from Mexico with his family and became a U.S. citizen in 2006, supports stronger border enforcement and resources for Border Patrol Agents, earning an endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council. Mendoza supports creating legal pathways to citizenship and legislation that would strengthen oversight of detention facilities and restore independent audits, emphasizing due process and fair treatment of immigrants.
Mendoza says she will address the rising cost of living in Arizona by strengthening consumer protections and preventing unfair price disparities for rural communities. Mendoza has criticized Ciscomani’s vote to cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid through the One Big Beautiful Bill. Arizona has seen one of the steepest declines in ACA enrollment in the nation, losing more than a fourth of enrollees.
Ciscomani has emphasized lowering taxes and reducing federal spending, defending his support for Republican tax legislation that eliminates federal income taxes on qualifying tips and overtime, extends the child tax credit and provides incentives for small businesses.
Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga faces a tough challenge in Democratic Michigan State Senator Sean McCann as voters sour on Republican policies.
A September poll conducted for the McCann campaign found the race virtually tied, with McCann at 47%, Huizenga at 46% and 7% of likely voters saying they were undecided.
The district stretches along Lake Michigan and includes major agricultural communities and manufacturing centers. Huizenga has defended the Trump administration’s tariffs, while McCann has criticized their economic consequences and Huizenga’s opposition to congressional efforts to limit the president’s tariff authority.
McCann champions expanding access to Medicaid and protecting the Affordable Care Act, opposing federal health care funding cuts that endanger rural hospitals and coverage for district residents. Huizenga opposes the Affordable Care Act and proposes reducing health care costs through price transparency, medical innovation and health savings accounts.
Both candidates support reopening the Palisades Nuclear Plant, although they differ over renewable energy development and federal environmental regulations.
Governor
Maine
Candidates: Hannah Pingree (D) v. Bobby Charles (R) v. Rick Bennett (I)
Incumbent: Janet Mills (D) (term-limited)
Cook Political Report: Solid D
The RealClearPolitics poll average shows Democrat Hannah Pingree, the daughter of long-time U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree of Maine, leads in the race for governor at 49% compared to 39% for Republican Bobby Charles and 7.5% for Independent Rick Bennett.
With nearly 33% of Maine voters registered as independent, more than the Republican party. Bennett’s candidacy raised concerns among some that his bid could be a spoiler candidacy, drawing votes away from Pingree. Maine has elected two independent governors in its history, more than any other state in the nation.
Pingree has proposed expanding affordable housing, protecting rural hospitals and investing in renewable energy. However, because of Pingree’s former role in the Gov. Janet Mills’s administration, Charles blames her for the issues the state is facing. Charles has emphasized reducing taxes, government spending and energy costs, while Bennett has campaigned on affordability and government accountability.
Iowa
Candidates: Rob Sand (D) v. Zach Lahn (R)
Incumbent: Kim Reynolds (R) (retiring)
Cook Political Report: Lean D
Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn are competing in a close race that could be influenced by the state’s roughly 30% of registered voters who identify as independent.
An October Marist poll found Sand with an advantage against Lahn 52% to 45% among likely voters statewide
Both candidates have emphasized improving water quality in a state grappling with nitrate contamination from agricultural runoff. Sand has proposed tax incentives and additional funding for farmers who adopt conservation practices, while Lahn supports voluntary conservation measures and stronger action against agricultural monopolies.
The contest follows Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’s decision not to seek re-election. Lahn defeated Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary, while Sand, Iowa’s state auditor and only statewide elected Democrat, has campaigned as an independent minded Democrat emphasizing bipartisan cooperation.
The emergence of data center development as a cross-partisan issue has roiled Michigan’s gubernatorial race between Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican John James. Both candidates have criticized each other over ties to the industry.
Benson’s husband previously worked for Related Companies, which is developing a $16 billion data center in Saline Township. Her 2026 financial disclosures revealed he earned $370,000 from the company in 2025, although it maintained he received no project-specific compensation. Benson has since called for a moratorium on data center development.
James has offered conflicting positions, supporting a moratorium in August before opposing a statewide ban in October. Bridge Michigan reported that James received more than $100,000 in political contributions from donors with data center ties.
An October poll for CBS Detroit found Benson leading James 49% to 44%.
Benson and running mate Winnie Brinks would become Michigan’s first all-female governor and lieutenant governor team, while James would become the state’s first Black governor.
Democrat Deb Haaland, former U.S. Department of the Interior secretary and member of Congress, faces Republican Gregg Hull, a businessman and former mayor of Rio Rancho, New Mexico, for New Mexico governor. The state ranks high nationally in terms of poverty and low in wages. Haaland, a member of Laguna Pueblo, could become the first Native American woman elected governor in U.S. history.
A recent Albuquerque Journal poll has Haaland ahead of Hull at 49% to 42%.
Energy has emerged as a dividing line, alongside issues of water scarcity and rural health care shortages. Hull has emphasized protecting oil and gas production, a major source of state revenue, while Haaland has stressed renewable energy development and environmental protections.
Other statewide races
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture
Candidates: Chris Jones (D) v. Mike Naig (R)
Incumbent: Naig (R)
Chris Jones, a former University of Iowa water quality researcher, has framed the election as a referendum on Iowa’s water quality, criticizing the state’s reliance on voluntary conservation measures to address agricultural runoff and nitrate contamination. Mike Naig has defended these programs, arguing that additional regulations would burden smaller farms and accelerate agricultural consolidation.
A poll conducted by Change Research in July on behalf of the Jones campaign found Naig led Jones by 42% to 40%. A July survey by the Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future. found that 60% of likely Iowa voters ranked water quality and the environment among their five most important issues.
The candidates differ over Iowa’s agricultural future. Naig supports expanding ethanol production and existing agricultural markets, while Jones advocates for crop diversification, stronger pollution regulations and reduced dependence on corn-based ethanol.
Clayton Tucker, a young progressive populist seeking to revive Texas’ tradition of farmer-led politics, faces a Republican businessman in the race for Texas agricultural commissioner, where corporate consolidation, the future of family farmers and the expansion of data centers have become key issues.
A recent Texas Southern University poll shows Sheets leads Tucker 48% to 44%.
Tucker cites the development of data centers as a major contributing factor to the economic decline of farming and loss of agricultural land, calling for a two-year moratorium. Sheets believes elected officials and communities should collaborate with data center developers rather than prevent their development.
Tucker advocates stronger protections for family farmers and policies addressing corporate consolidation, while Sheets favors reducing regulations and expanding rural economic development. Both candidates support mandatory country of origin labeling, a key issue for independent ranchers.
